Using Theory in Planning

By Larrywomack.com

In his world-changing book, Out of the Crisis (MIT,1986), Dr. W. Edwards Deming says that experience alone, without theory, teaches management nothing about what to do to advance the success of a company.  “Using experience alone,” said Dr. Deming, “is like attempting to drive a car by using only the rearview mirror.”  He postulated that the purpose of establishing a theory is to create a context from which to generate the right questions to answer and from which to measure progress.  “The theory in hand need not be elaborate,”  he said.  “It may be only a hunch, or a statement of principles.  It may turn out to be a wrong hunch.  But by establishing a theory to underpin a plan, it is both easier to know why you succeeded and to avoid replicating actions that led to failure.”

Though there are myriad business theories, those presented here are the ones I regularly use for business planning. By using one or more of these theories, principles, or those already established by my client, a context can be established for research, discussion, and decision.  The sources from which I arrive at the theory are included.

 

Lifecycle Theory:  

Knowing where one is on the lifecycle continuum allows for adjustments to survive or advance.

 

Lifecycle – Cosmic History

The science fiction bestseller by Arthur C. Clarke and Gentry Lee, Rama Revealed, tells the story of a group of human spacefarers who are offered a home on a galactic way station by an advanced alien race.  The way station has a special theater that displays the universe in three-dimensional holographic detail.  By using a time-lapse control pad, several billion years of history unfold before the viewers’ eyes.

Early in the simulation, relatively few lights appear on the map. Each light represents a civilization that achieved a spacefaring capability. As the universe ages, new zones with more lights appear as these space travelers colonize nearby star systems.  Some of the lights remain on only a short time and then blink out, signaling the end of civilization.  The end usually begins at the home planet.

The imagery of civilizations dying suggests that humanity, like individuals, has only a limited life span. It is not easy to face one’s own mortality, much less the eventual extinction of one’s entire race.

 

Consequences Theory:

Most occurrences are beyond the ability of the observer to control.

 

Natural Consequences – Anthropocentrism

Anthropocentrism, a controversial way of observing our universe, is the belief that the laws of nature must have been fortuitously aligned to have given rise to intelligent observers.  Those who espouse the theory believe that intelligent life would likely have been impossible if the universe had evolved with a slightly different set of rules.

If the strong nuclear force that created the universe had been one percent stronger, the protons in a star would quickly join together into di-protons, our sun would consume all its fuel in about a second, and we would not be here to see it.

Proponents maintain there may be nothing-unique special about our Universe.  Given the wide range of possible universes that might have evolved after the Big Bang, our universe merely expresses the physical constants and laws of nature that were most probable to arise. Life, including humanity, is just a natural consequence or expression of the universe; no more, no less.

 

Commonplace Theory:  

The pursuit of a truth is stimulated by the times, not the mind.  Many simultaneously pursue the same dream at the same time.

 

Commonplace Existence – The Copernican Principle

The Copernican Principle is based on Copernicus’ accurate assumption that the earth was not center of the solar system. To his followers this meant that humanity was somewhat less special in the bigger scheme of things.

If there is nothing special about our place or time in the universe, this has serious implications for humanity’s future.   If we are merely living at some random moment in time and the total number of human beings who have lived or will ever live is finite, then it is highly unlikely we are among the first or the last humans.

 

Point-of-View Theory:

A vision of the future is dependent on the observer’s perspective of the future.

 

Point-of-View – Prediction

The July 12, 1999, issue of the New Yorker contained a fascinating profile on the celebrated Princeton astrophysicist, J. Richard Gott.   Gott has always been interested in predicting the future; only recently he began predicting how long Broadway plays will run.  Gott’s predictions are based on how long it had been running already.  He says he is batting 1000.

Gott’s approach is based on the Copernican Principle.  He says the principle works because of all the places for predictors to be . . . there are many ordinary places and few special places from which to observe.

 

Reality Theory:  

All possibilities are always present.

 

Creating Reality – Quantum Theory

Erwin Schrödinger, a renowned quantum theorist, has a cat that lives in a box with a fiendish device, triggered by the random decay of a radioactive sample that determines whether the cat is fed food or poison.

In our world, one switch or the other would be triggered and the cat would eat either good food and live, or eat the poison and die.  But Schrödinger’s cat is a quantum cat.  In the quantum world all possibilities, even contradictory ones, exist together.

Schrödinger ‘s cat is fed both food and poison simultaneously.  Consequently he is both alive and dead at the same time.  We never see alive/dead cats.  But, if we open the box to look at Schrödinger’s cat, we will see that the cat is either alive or dead.  It is our looking that has saved or lost the cat.  In quantum theory, both/and is always present

 

Insight Theory:

Focusing all of one’s energy on a single vision makes the future less foreboding.

 

Insight  - Tantric Meditation

A Hindu or Buddhist yogi, in tantric meditation, experiences an inner bridge in the midbrain that provides access to what the spiritualist calls the “third eye.”  As the energy rises from the base of his spine, his eyes roll up and he becomes absorbed in the vision seen by the “third eye.”  The physical sensation of the experience locates the “third eye” between and just above the other eyes, which remain closed during the meditation.  His whole consciousness becomes polarized and, at the same time, he feels carried up in the vision in an out-of-body experience.  He is at once the creator of the vision, a witness to it, and a participant in it.

Tantric meditation is an intentional and focused version of what Westerners call daydreaming.  When one is in a trance like the yogi, or dreaming of the future, time is condensed.  Looking at the future with the “third eye” provides a more achievable perspective than viewing it from the present or from past exploits.

 

Redundant Theory:

Covering the same ground again and again creates a false sense of achievement.

 

Redundant Thinking – Möbius Strip

A  Möbius Strip is a continuous one-sided surface that can be formed from a rectangular strip by rotating one end 180° and attaching it to the other end.  It was named after a renowned German mathematician.  If one’s mind follows the path of a Möbius Strip, it experiences events over and over again without awareness of the possibilities that lie elsewhere.  On a Möbius Strip, all ideas, observations, decisions, and judgments are drawn solely from the past and present.

 

Sensing Theory:

If it feels right, do it!  There are many answers to a single question or challenge.

 

Sensing Option – Fuzzy Thinking

Fuzzy Thinking is a concept created by physicist Bart Kosko.  It is used in the manufacture of products that think through sensing.  Whereas the pragmatist says a thing is A or it is not, fuzzy thinking recognizes the ambiguities of all things.  A can be a fuzzy A and still be not.  Everything is a matter of degree.  There is perhaps an infinite spectrum of options instead of two extremes.  Fuzzy thinking is more about sensing than calculation.

 

Opportunity Theory:  

There is no future in the past.

 

Opportunity – Future

Albert Einstein believed that the future always provides more opportunity for discovery than does the past:   “In the world the passage of time brings increasing order.  Order is the law of nature.  If time is an arrow, that arrow points to order.  The future is pattern, organization, union, intensification; the past randomness, confusion, disintegration, dissipation.”